Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.