🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.