NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
As we head into the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, just two play-off spots remain open. However, a great deal more is on the line, including the highly desired top seeds in both conferences and four divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have crafted a dramatic finale, with the final two play-off positions to be decided in two direct winner-take-all matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Steelers-Ravens contest will claim the fourth seed and a home-field advantage in the first playoff round. At the same time, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard entrants.
The Texans require a win and a Jacksonville loss to climb from the fifth seed to the third seed. The Broncos will secure the top seed with a triumph, but a setback could open the door for the Patriots or Jacksonville to claim it.
NFC Standings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The South division will be claimed by the winner of the Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup, earning them the #4 position. However, the Panthers could still claim the divisional title even with a loss, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are set at the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, though, is the clash for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and San Francisco, with a first-round bye and home-field advantage on the line.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in each conference receives a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage for the duration of the postseason.
During the Wild Card round, the remaining six qualified teams face off: the #2 team plays the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the second round, the #1 seeds join the fray, facing the weakest surviving team. The conference title games are then played at the best remaining team, highlighting the immense value of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match reaches its climax in the last contest of the regular season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot at stake, this is a true elimination scenario.
Pittsburgh have been inconsistent this season, while the Ravens struggled early but are still in the hunt. Player availability could be decisive: The Steelers may miss star receiver their top wideout, while Baltimore's quarterback Lamar Jackson is questionable with a health issue.
Star rusher Derrick Henry could be the x-factor for the Ravens in what promises to be a hard-hitting, defensive struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is at stake when the Seahawks travels to San Francisco. The victorious team claims the NFC's top seed and the path to the Super Bowl that it provides.
This game pits an explosive 49ers offense against a dominant Seahawks defense. Since quarterback their young passer returned, the 49ers have been the NFL's top offense. Conversely, the Seahawks' defense is rated second best in the NFL.
Seattle quarterback their passer needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have plagued him this season. The team that wins this clash earns a huge edge for the playoff run.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this contest with much momentum. The Buccaneers have dropped four straight, while Carolina have squandered chances to secure the division.
For Carolina it's straightforward: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the situation is trickier. Even with a win, they need help from the Falcons-Saints game to steal the division crown.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the #1 AFC spot. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit key players seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory coupled with a Broncos loss would hand the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They need a triumph and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an unlikely ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)